In 2022, we saw Democrats grow their vote percentages in seven battleground states. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. Nov. 9, 2022, More than 210 Republicans who questioned the 2020 election have won seats in the U.S. House and Senate and in state races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, according to results as of 12 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Heres how it works Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Maggie Astor Alicia Parlapiano I talked with Rosenberg, who writes the Hopium Chronicles newsletter on Substack, about his optimism for 2024. Over the past decade, however, we have seen that Republicans have blown several opportunities to pick up Democratic seats by nominating candidates who were either ideologically extreme or weighed down by personal controversies. 2022 Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. The Republican nominee, Richard Mourdock, a staunch conservative, defeated the more moderate incumbent, Richard Lugar, in the GOP primary. Dont expect quick results in either race; officials in Alaska wont finish counting absentee ballots for about two weeks. Nov. 8, 2022, Because of the order in which different types of ballots are counted, early returns can be misleading. Maggie Astor On Monday, we will launch our Georgia Senate Runoff Predictions. For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 59.3% chance of controlling the Senate. The greater success of Democratic candidates in states won by the opposing partys presidential candidate was crucial to their ability to win a slight majority of Senate races during these years. Based on the results of my analysis of Senate contests between 2012 and 2020 in Table 2, I calculated the models expected results of all 35 Senate contests taking place this year. Lazaro Gamio Its important that our goal is not just to win the election but to have it feel like a profound repudiation of MAGA. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. Montana voters rejected a proposal that would have required medical interventions to save those that the state defines as born alive infants. Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024. , Vicente Gonzalez, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Texas 34th Congressional District. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. We predict most Americans will be led by Democraticgovernors. We also have a Live Forecast for the House.if(typeof ez_ad_units!='undefined'){ez_ad_units.push([[728,90],'racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3','ezslot_3',639,'0','0'])};__ez_fad_position('div-gpt-ad-racetothewh_com-medrectangle-3-0'); We are using the Associated Press's election calls to take races off the board. 3 See also. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the House, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. The results are displayed in Table 5. His Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, is backed by Donald Trump. As a rule, when the composition estimate is steady in the presence of new results, our forecast is more trustworthy. Democrat Katie Hobbs vs. Republican Kari Lake is one of the marquee races of the 2022 midterms. Polls Underestimated. Looking for the Live House Forecast? Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. *The vice president, Kamala Harris, breaks 50-50 ties for the Democrats. Updated daily, Ron Johnson Re-Election Polling and Predictions, Mark Kelly Re-Election Polling and Predictions, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. Republican John Duarte has inched in front of moderate Democrat Adam Gray, despite the fact this Central Valley district went for President Joe Biden by 11 points in 2020. I will still predict that Democrats will retain the seat, assuming Chris Sununu will run again for governor and a candidate with Trumps blessings runs. Similarly, Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is narrowly ahead of GOP candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, though Bolduc is within striking distance. That could all change Tuesday. This is not a time to be defensive. 3 See also. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. 2 Nov. 14, 2022, Three Republican House candidates who have supported QAnon underperformed compared with Trump, despite most House Republicans outperforming the former president. 2022 Senate Election Predictions - Medium The Republican argument looks today even more preposterous and ridiculous. Lazaro Gamio Nov. 9, 2022, Voters in three states enshrined lasting protections for abortion rights in their state Constitutions. The polls just closed in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia. We got to 55 percent in Michigan. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. , Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire was re-elected, holding on to one of Democrats most vulnerable seats in a tight contest for Senate control. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling. You seem to be suggesting that to grow further, just campaigning on abortion rights and attacking MAGA extremism isnt enough: There has to be something more proactive and positive to really expand the coalition. Abortion rights were put to the test in the midterm elections. contact info. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Alicia Parlapiano WebBattle for the Senate 2022. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous Nov. 8, 2022, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican J.D. An edited and condensed version of our conversation follows. Democrats are hoping to pick up seats in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Ohio, while Republicans have pinned their hopes on races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. 0 Days to Election. Ron DeSantis won re-election in Florida, cementing Republicans power in a state that was once a key battleground. In 2020, Virginias early vote for president favored Republicans, while Pennsylvanias skewed toward Democrats. Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens survived a member-versus-member primary in August likely the biggest obstacle to her reelection. Todays voting will decide the balance of power in Congress. With a 5050 Senate, the vice president should be the kingmaker and cast the tie-breaking vote. This discrepancy reflects the small state bias of the Senate, which results in an overrepresentation of Republican-leaning states. These differences in results reflected differences in the partisan makeup of the 3 classes of Senate seats as well as differences in the national political environment at the time of each election. Well also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. Hi there. Stacey Abrams has conceded to Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. But so far, voters are rejecting an effort to deny abortion rights. fresh out of the oven. Our newest ratings and updates, Colorados Third District is leaning toward Lauren Boebert, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, according to our estimates. Web2022 Senate. That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. . Maggie Astor In Wisconsin, Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, is up for re-election against Lt. Gov. Albert Sun Adjusted Poll Average. GOP Gov. Im Fivey Fox! Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. See our election dashboard and find your 1.2 Close races. Maggie Astor Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. In Ariz., Mont., Neb. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Most polls have closed in Alaska, but Alaska doesnt release results until after its last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? See the rest of our predictions. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. But because four of those seats are currently held by Democrats and two by Republicans, its fair to describe the GOP as a slim favorite. Lauren Leatherby Click here! The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. RCP Average 0 Days to Election Day. Christine Zhang Jen Kiggans, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent Virginias Second Congressional District. In Indiana, a House race in the 1st district leans Democratic, but, if the seat were to flip, it could be an early sign of a red wave. An example of data being processed may be a unique identifier stored in a cookie. Clickme! Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. Democrats have the potential to flip 6 seats in the Senate in 2022. Current Senate 2 References. All rights reserved. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues Albert Sun . Nov. 10, 2022, In Texas, majority-Hispanic counties also swung to the right, but to a much lesser degree than in Florida. 2022 United States Senate elections - Wikipedia Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. The table includes the state, type of Senate race, predicted Democratic margin, and classification into 1 of 6 categories: Uncompetitive Democratic, Potentially Competitive Democratic, Very Competitive Democratic, Very Competitive Republican, Potentially Competitive Republican, and Uncompetitive Republican. Explore the full list of features on our site map. Unfortunately, the 60 seat goal is out of reach. Rep. Ted Budd of North Carolina, a Trump-backed conservative, beat Cheri Beasley, a Democrat, to capture retiring Senator Richard Burr's seat. Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. Democratic Gov. Nov. 10, 2022, More than 200,000 Georgia voters cast ballots for Brian Kemp, Republican candidate for governor, but did not vote for Herschel Walker in the Senate race. Janet Mills of Maine. 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois The Needle: Senate and House Forecast - New York Times that guide every prediction he makes. Nov. 8, 2022, The Timess election forecast is now running. Current House. 2022 Senate Elections Model - Decision Desk HQ 2022 Nevadas Senate race is rated a tossup by the Cook Political Report.
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